Thursday, June 20, 2013

Rainfall Update: More flooding expected coming days

Rainfall Update: More flooding expected coming days

Please see the visualization of rainfall intensities in the form of maps in the following pages.  The colored patches are the areas where heavy rainfall occurred in the past and is expected in the coming week. The red colored areas are where minimum rains and the purple ones are the areas where maximum rains occurred. You will see two kinds of maps (a) forecast for June 19, and June 22 and (b) trend of rainfall that caused heavy floods in western Nepal and North India.

Scientists have found that if the rainfall exceeds 144mm in a day, the likelihood of landslides increase unexpectedly in Nepal. The  forecast shows rains will exceed the range of 200mm. So, more landslides to be expected. More loss of lives and property, sad news.

1. Forectasts
Forecast for June 19, 2013
This is rainfall prediction for June 19, UTC 1200. Heavy rains expected in the region of the range min 100 mm to max of 250mm for June 19 at about 1200 UTC.




Forecast for June 22, 2013 at UTC 300
This is rainfall prediction for June 22, UTC 300. Heavy rains expected in the region of the range min 100 mm to max of 250mm more frequently that  for June 19.
2. Recent rainfall trend
24 hours accumulated rainfall on June 19 by UTC 300
Minimum 35 mm, central region of Nepal, India, Myanmar and China.
 


3 days  accumulated rainfall on June 19 by UTC 300
Minimum 100 mm, max 200mm central and western regions of Nepal, India, Myanmar and China.



7 days  accumulated rainfall on June 19 by UTC 300
Minimum 200 mm, max 500 mm central and western regions of Nepal, India, Myanmar and China.

For more on TRMM, please visit: http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/. To understand the process, please refer to this literature: Algorithm 3B42 - TRMM Merged HQ/Infrared Precipitation; http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/3b42.html

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